About Me

Find out more about me here.

05 April 2022

The Bending Arc of the Moral Universe

I'm of the opinion that the story of history has been toward progress and that we can reasonably predict that progress to continue into the future. Critics will point out setbacks (e.g. recent increases in violence toward Asian Americans or increases in crime rates). Could these represent reversals? Sure, but the historical data are noisy, and we regularly witness short-term blips revert to the trend line of the historic mean. Short-term variability does not negate the long-term trend. 

When I say it's a safe bet that things will continue to get better, I am not saying that will happen on its own without effort. Somehow people think that the work that goes into making progress happen is outside of my prediction. It's not. I'm predicting that people will continue to put in the work because that is entangled in the historic data as well. A lack of complacency is a part of my model. 

I could be wrong. Social science is probabilistic.

No comments:

Post a Comment